RGV National Weather Report Summary

Updated: November 30, 2023

The National Weather Service released their reports and perspective on the November – January Outlook.

The report mentions the heat relief seen in October and compares seasonal temperatures across previous years along with precipitation outlooks.

The National Weather Service says, “Late season El Niño influences will determine the eventual “sense” of November-December 2023. There are increased chances for helpful rains for both the basin and the Valley’s detention/drainage system – but still a notable chance for continued dryness. Confidence is medium on either outcome.

Reservoir levels at Falcon were at or near record lows for late October – values not seen since 1956 and 2002. Inflows from additional rainfall should slowly increase reservoir levels; conversely, dry and warm periods could maintain modest evaporation rates through November. Confidence is low on reservoir rises, but high on levels remaining well below average through January.”

In summary:
Despite increasing confidence for more rainfall, sufficient inflows from Mexican reservoirs serving the Lower Rio Grande watershed are unlikely during the “cool” season. Combined share of water in Amistad and Falcon should continue at or near Stage 2 triggers through winter. Water conservation, smart irrigation, and rainwater harvesting are important actions to continue.

Drought/Dryness should remain but improve. Future evolution will depend on rainfall directly on the RGV.
Atmospheric moisture feeds along fronts should put a dent into the drought by one category. However, fronts with limited moisture followed by prolonged spells of warm weather with low humidity would limit improvements. Confidence is low on which outcome occurs, but moderate drought may continue into early
winter, particularly in Hidalgo and Brooks County.
There will be cold fronts and cold snaps, likely to favor occasional, rather than frequent, chilly drizzle events. Sharp changes of 30 to 60 degrees (apparent temperature change) from day to day are likely several times. “Feels like” temperatures could occasionally dip to or below 30. A hard freeze is unlikely, but one or two freezes are possible.